Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement is likely to have little impact on the Tories’ near-flatlining chances at the next General Election, according to seasoned political commentators.
The chancellor outlined his fiscal plans at the House of Commons today, announcing measures to stimulate economic growth, increase pay packets and alleviate the cost of living.
Mr Hunt also announced moves to freeze alcohol duty and increase universal credit and state pensions, along with 110 measures aimed at growing the British economy.
Cuts to National Insurance, freeing up money for rent and new housing and increasing the National Living Wage to £11.44 an hour also gave the statement broad appeal.
The speech is likely to be one of the Tories’ final big parliamentary set-pieces before the election is called by the prime minister next year ahead of the December 17 cut-off.
Hunt’s package appeared to contain across-the-board incentives to a wide range of British society, underpinned by the Tory ethos of using low taxes and business growth to reinvigorate the country.
But will it be enough to raise the Tories’ moribund showing in the polls?
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‘Tories want to recover from Brexit and Truss’
Westminster watcher Dr Darren Lilleker told Metro.co.uk: ‘Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement is designed to appeal to electoral groups the Conservatives fear they are losing as they languish in the opinion polls.
‘Larger than expected increases in pensions may shore up support among older generations, especially those most vulnerable to economic volatility.
‘Meanwhile the drop in the rate of National Insurance, increases in benefits and support for apprenticeships could appeal to voters in the so-called “red wall” seats where many exist in financially precarious conditions.
‘So largely we need to look at this budget as an attempt to shift public opinion for the government.’
Turbulence encountered by the Tories in recent years includes the Boris Johnson ‘partygate’ scandal, the economic crisis precipitated by Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng and a merry-go-round of firings and hirings.
In coming months, Mr Hunt’s measures will play out against the ongoing cost of living crisis felt by millions of voters, which includes the energy price cap expected to rise to around £2,000 for the whole of next year.
Dr Lilleker, professor of political communications at Bournemouth University, said: ‘The question is whether the statement can reverse the perception of the Conservatives on the economy.
‘The value of the pound took hits from Brexit and the Kwarteng budget, meaning import costs have increased. Economic problems resulting from the pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and turbulence in the Middle East have exacerbated existing problems, as indicated by the higher inflation in the UK compared to the EU average.
‘While some factors are beyond the control of the government, it is perception that matters: the question is who does the public blame for any reduction in their standards of living.
‘The measures Jeremy Hunt has taken could help many financially, especially those most vulnerable to fluctuations in prices. But food prices remain stubbornly high, affecting the budgets of many families. The measures will only be vote winners if people feel they are better off.
‘We may see an opinion poll bounce on the back of announcements, but if the narrative remains that many are still on or below the poverty line the bounce could be short-lived.
‘This will especially be the case within the communities, such as those red wall seats, if they still feel they are struggling to make ends meet.
‘Ideological Conservatives who believe in low tax will find much to like in the budget, perhaps with a question around the substantial benefit increases.’
Despite the pay packet boons, voters may approach today’s announcement with a dose of scepticism, the academic warned.
‘It is only weeks ago that Hunt was saying a responsible government could not reduce taxes and spending needed to be tightly controlled,’ he said.
‘Will this budget lead to cynicism and be seen widely as an attempt to win votes at a time of continuing bad news for the government?’
A small Labour majority is the most likely outcome at the next election, according to YouGov, with 23% of people choosing this as the most likely result. The figures, which cover the period up to Monday, show a large majority for Sir Keir Starmer’s party as the second most popular prediction, with 15% of those feeling this scenario was most likely.
A hung parliament resulting in a Conservative-led government or a small Tory majority were both around the 8% mark in the monthly tracking data.
The Labour leader is 13th in a separate YouGov list of the most popular political figures, with Rishi Sunak residing at 29th.
‘Stimulus may only reduce size of Labour win’
Professor Wyn Grant, emeritus professor of politics, University of Warwick, said: ‘The Autumn Statement might potentially have some impact but one has to remember that in 1997 the economy was recovering and still the Conservatives lost by a large margin because people were worried about public services as well as the state of the economy.
‘Clearly, the tax reductions will put some more money in people’s pockets and inflation will continue to moderate, so people may be feeling better off by this time next year after suffering quite big increases in the shops.
‘It may reduce the Labour lead, but the question is whether it will be enough to secure a Conservative majority, or even the Conservatives as the largest party, and at present I’m quite doubtful about this. I’m always sceptical about the notion of a Labour landslide but it may make this less likely.’
The Tories may have to wait until after the election to see rosier growth, with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) saying today that the economy will grow by 0.7% in 2024 and 1.4% in 2025. The spending watchdog released the outlook alongside the Autumn Statement.
‘I haven’t seen any year in which growth is shown to be above 2%, so the growth problem in the economy has not been solved,’ Prof Grant said.
‘You have to solve the growth and productivity problem to give people a higher standard of living. If you look at the OBR forecast which takes account of the Autumn Statement, there’s no dramatic increase in growth.
‘But whatever the government does, it might be that after 13 years of the same government in office, even if they claim the governments are different, people decide it is time for a change.’
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